
A patient is given a H1N1 swine flu vaccination at the University College London hospital. — Reuters pic
WASHINGTON, Nov 13 — H1N1 swine flu killed an estimated 3,900 Americans from April to October, including more than 500 children, US health officials said yesterday.
More complete data and more comprehensive calculations than previously released now show that, in the first six months of the pandemic, H1N1 infected an estimated 22 million Americans and put 98,000 in the hospital, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
Of these totals, children account for 8 million of the infected, 36,000 of those in hospital and 540 deaths.
“I have already seen a larger number of deaths than we have had for several years,” the CDC’s Dr. Anne Schuchat told reporters. “I do believe the pediatric death toll from this pandemic will be extensive and much greater than what we see with seasonal flu.”
In an average flu season, about 82 children die in the United States, the CDC says. But those are lab-confirmed cases, which Schuchat points out are far lower than the kinds of estimates released yesterday.
For the first six months of this pandemic, 129 US children who died had lab-confirmed H1N1 flu.
The CDC said swine flu is causing the worst flu season in the United States since 1997, when current measurements started.
“What we are seeing in 2009 is unprecedented,” Schuchat said. “Influenza is really serious. The vaccines we have are the best way to protect patients.”
But the vaccines are being produced and distributed slowly. Schuchat said 41.6 million doses were available or had been distributed but this is far below what had been expected.
“Last week we did mention that we had been led to expect about 8 million doses this week,” Schuchat said. “Based on what we have today, we aren’t expecting to meet that estimate that the manufacturers gave us.”
Many things can go wrong with flu vaccine production, Schuchat noted.
The CDC said doctors need to treat cases of severe flu quickly with the antiviral drugs Tamiflu, made by Roche AG, Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline, or for severe hospitalized cases, peramivir, made by BioCryst.
But a team of CDC experts said in a report released yesterday that only about 75 per cent of hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 get them.
Schuchat stressed that the pandemic is not worsening but noted that it takes time to gather data on flu cases and deaths. Thursday’s count is not an actual reckoning of deaths but is an extrapolation based on detailed data from 10 states.
CDC’s precise count of confirmed flu deaths is 1,265.
“For influenza it’s virtually impossible to find every case with a lab test. So the estimation method we are using now we believe gives a bigger picture, a probably more accurate picture of the full scope of the pandemic,” Schuchat said.
In an average flu season, about 36,000 Americans die and 200,000 are hospitalized. But 90 per cent of these are people over 65.
With H1N1, the opposite is true — 90 percent of those infected and seriously ill are younger adults and children.
And Schuchat pointed out that it is only November. “We have a long flu season ahead of us,” she said. The US flu season usually runs from October to May.
Most of the confirmed flu cases are H1N1 flu and about 30 per cent of people who show up at the doctor’s office and are actually tested for influenza turn out to have flu, as opposed to some other infection. — Reuters